question Rain, scratchings and market moves already changing this weekend's cards

Figured I'd chuck up a thread for the weekend meetings because there's a fair bit shifting around already. A few tracks are getting watched closely with the weather, there've been some jockey changes floating about, and early money has come for a couple that probably weren't topping everyone's shortlist 24 hours ago.

The main thing I'm keeping an eye on is how much the track conditions end up changing the shape of a few races. Some of these fields look pretty straightforward on paper, then one downgrade and suddenly the map's different, tempo's different, and the horse everyone was keen on is stuck doing the hard work. Also feels like there are a few runners coming through decent provincial form that might measure up better than the market expects.

If anyone's across the Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane or the smaller meetings, throw in what you're hearing. Early fancies, horses to avoid, stable mail, whatever you've got. Even just noting which ones are genuine wet trackers could save a few punters a headache on the arvo.

I stop trying to be too clever once there's rain about. If one comes through nice provincial form on top of the ground then cops a downgrade in town, I'm usually off it unless it maps to get a soft run. Been burnt too many times backing the flashy one and it just paddles late. For the arvo I trim my shortlist right down to runners that have actually hit the line in the wet, not the ones people reckon will probably handle it.