Been curious about this lately because every time betting methods come up, half the chat goes straight to "just pick better" and the other half starts talking units, progression stuff, Kelly, flat staking, all that.
I mainly punt on NRL and AFL and I keep ending up back at pretty basic bankroll rules rather than anything fancy. Flat stakes make sense to me, and I can sort of see why some blokes scale up when they reckon they've got an edge, but once it gets into doubling after losses or trying to recover a bad round, that's where it starts feeling cooked pretty quick.
For the people here who actually stick to a set approach, what are you using and has it genuinely held up over time? Not talking miracle stuff, just a method that keeps you from doing dumb things on a Saturday arvo after a few rough results. Keen to hear whether anyone has had decent success with percentage staking, Kelly, confidence-based sizing, or if most of you just keep it simple and move on.
Also wondering if anyone tracks this properly in a spreadsheet or app. I reckon heaps of strategies sound good until variance smacks you for a month and then you find out whether the plan was any good or whether you were just on a heater.