Been around this stuff long enough to stop caring whether I pick more winners and care a lot more about whether the number was wrong when I took it. Feels like heaps of punters still talk like strike rate is everything, but if you’re regularly taking $2.40 about something that should be closer to $2.05, you’re probably on the right track even if a few lose on the bounce.
What I’m curious about is how you lot actually do it day to day. Are you making your own prices, line shopping and jumping when one book’s asleep, using closing line as the main check, or just sticking to comps and markets you know inside out? My better runs have come from being fussy as hell and passing on most things, but it can get messy fast when the market moves and you start wondering if you’ve found a real edge or you’re just talking yourself into a bet.
Also keen to hear how strict people are with entry points. Do you need a certain % gap before you fire, or if the price looks a touch over do you still have a nibble? And staking-wise, flat bets only, or do you size up when you reckon the edge is proper? I got a bit too confident with that a while back and copped a few bloody reminders from the market.
Would be good to hear from anyone who’s been doing this for a while and actually tracking it properly. What do you trust most as proof you’re beating it — CLV, ROI over a decent sample, market-by-market results, something else? Curious what the sharper heads here reckon.