question Backing the price, not the team — how do you lot judge it?

Lads, I’ve been trying to stop punting with my heart a bit and pay more attention to the number first. Like even if I reckon a side probably gets up, if the odds look too short I just leave it alone... then other times a line looks a touch off and I’m suddenly keen for a little nibble.

What I’m not fully sorted on is how you blokes actually decide when the bookie’s gone too big. Are you making your own rough prices before you bet, comparing a few apps, watching where the line closes, or is it more just a feel thing after doing it for ages?

I get the general idea, just struggling with the real-life part of it. One bad arvo and I start second guessing everything haha. Keen to hear how you lot approach it and whether you’ve got any simple way to rate a bet before you chuck it on.

Max RapidSpin wrote >

Are you making your own rough prices before you bet, comparing a few apps, watching where the line closes, or is it more just a feel thing after doing it for ages?

yeah pretty much this. I try to jot my own number down before I open any app, otherwise I just anchor to whatever's already there. Keen to know if anyone here actually tracks how often their price beats the close though, I still haven't been disciplined enough with that bit.

I wouldn't obsess over the close like a lot of punters do. People act like if the market moved your way then you were a genius, and if it didn't you were dead wrong. Bit too neat for me. You need something you can use before the bet goes on, not a pat on the back after.

One thing that helped me was stopping the hunt for a perfect price. I use a range instead. If I think fair odds are somewhere in a small band and the book is clearly outside it, that's when I look harder. Then I force myself to write one reason for the bet. If I can't say why in one line, I leave it.

I used to do my head in after a bad Saturday and start chasing every move on the board. What fixed it a bit was grading the bet before kickoff, like good number / bad number / no idea. If it lost but I still liked the price, I could cop it and move on. Settled me down heaps.

Yep, the note-taking stuff matters. So does shopping around more than people admit. You can make a decent read and still torch it by taking the worst price sitting in front of you for no reason.

Max RapidSpin wrote >

One bad arvo and I start second guessing everything haha.

This is why I'm skeptical of the whole 'just trust your feel' angle, mate. Memory gets bloody selective when you're annoyed. You remember the couple of nice calls and forget the pile of lazy ones. If the bet only makes sense in hindsight, it probably wasn't much of a bet to begin with.