question Backing the price, not the team - how do you lot judge it?

Been going down a bit of a rabbit hole lately with the whole idea of betting when the odds look better than they probably should be, instead of just backing who I reckon will win. Makes sense in my head... but when I actually try to do it, I end up second-guessing everything.

How are you lot working out whether a number is genuinely worth taking? Are you doing your own ratings, checking a few books, waiting for the market to move, or just going off what you know from watching heaps of games? I keep hearing you only need a tiny edge, but a tiny edge can also feel like a nice way to talk yourself into a bet that was never really there lol.

Keen to hear how others do it without turning it into a full-time maths project. Do you have some minimum gap before you chuck a bet on? And has it actually worked for you over a decent stretch, or did it get messy once real money was on the line?

Kai NeonSlot wrote >

How are you lot working out whether a number is genuinely worth taking?

I do it backwards. I make my own rough price first before I look at any book, even if it's just from my notes and a quick gut check. If I only like the bet after seeing the market, I leave it alone. Biggest tip though is track the close for a while. If you're always taking a worse number than where it lands, that's usually the market telling you your edge was in your head.