Been trying to get my head around the whole idea of backing something only when you reckon the odds on offer are bigger than they should be. Not talking about hunch bets or just jumping on your favourite team, more when you’ve got your own rough number in mind and the market is sitting a bit high.
I get the basic logic, but the practical side is where I’m a bit stuck. Are most of you doing your own pricing from scratch, comparing across a few books, or just looking for obvious stuff the market has missed for a short window? Keen to know how serious people are with it and whether you need proper spreadsheets/models or if a solid read on a comp is enough to make it worthwhile.
Also wondering what sort of gap you lot wait for before pulling the trigger. Like, if you make something $2.10 and it’s up at $2.25, is that enough, or do you want a bigger edge because of variance, limits, bad assumptions etc. Feels like heaps of this can look smart on paper and then a bad run makes you question the lot pretty quick.
If anyone here actually plays this way regularly, how do you track whether it’s working? Just profit over time, or are you looking at whether your bets beat the closing price as well? Curious how the sharper punters on here handle it.
Chuck in your process if you’ve got one, even if it’s pretty basic. Would be good to hear what’s realistic for an everyday punter in Aus, not just the full-time maths wizard setup.