I swear half the market still gets a bit too excited about low draws, especially once the track pattern starts doing weird things. Used to rate barriers pretty heavily myself, now I’m way more into tempo and where they’re actually gonna land after 200m. A horse jumping from 12 with a clean run can be in a better spot than one stuck on the fence needing luck... happens heaps.
These days when I’m sorting through a race, I’m usually looking at map first, then track condition, then whether the price is even worth touching. Sectionals too if they’re available and not from some messy run where the jockey basically had to chuck the brakes on. I’m less interested in the “won well last start” stuff and more into how the race was run and whether it sets up the same here.
Curious how everyone else does it though. What’s the first thing you lot bin runners on? Bad map? Wrong distance? Stable form? Jockey change? And do you still give big respect to the barrier on tighter tracks, or reckon the market’s already baked that in most of the time?
Keen to hear from the regulars because I’ve been trimming my own process lately. Trying to keep it simple and stop talking myself into every bloody runner with a sob story in the stewards report.