Been punting on the nags long enough to go through every phase - following newspaper picks, backing big-name stables blindly, getting sucked into late market moves, all that. These days I keep it pretty simple and honestly my results have been less hectic because of it.
The main thing I rate is map and tempo. If I can see where a horse lands and whether the race is gonna be run properly, I feel like I've already cut out half the rubbish. Heaps of people get obsessed with last-start margins, but if a horse got the perfect run in a sit-sprint then cops pressure from a wide gate next time, that form can go out the window real quick.
Second thing for me is jockey intent. Not just the big names either. Some riders are absolute weapons in front, some are better threading through late, some just seem to suit certain barns. I pay more attention to combinations now than I used to, especially at the provincials where you can spot a stable having a proper go.
Track pattern matters too, but I reckon plenty of punters overcook it. One race on the rail and suddenly everyone says leaders are unbeatable... then two races later they're all fanning wide and the whole read was cactus. I still watch early, just don't marry the first opinion.
Stuff I trust less these days: random social tips with no reasoning, spruiks off one flashy trial, and horses smashed in from $9 to $5 at some country meet just because someone in a WhatsApp group got keen. Sometimes the move is real, sure, but plenty of times you're just taking unders for the privilege of feeling informed.
If I'm reviewing what actually helps me, it's replays over ratings every day of the week. A decent replay tells you if one was bolting for runs, overracing, stuck three deep, or flattering to deceive. Ratings still have their place, I use them, but without context they can send you sideways pretty fast.
Curious what the sharper racing punters on here lean on most now. Still doing your own form from scratch, following a couple of trusted analysts, or mostly betting off price and market shape? Keen to hear what people reckon is actually worth paying attention to these days.