Keep seeing people talk like if you know the teams well enough you can grind AFL/NRL edges all season, but every time someone says they're winning long term there’s always that next bit where the book suddenly limits them or promos dry up. That part never gets talked about enough. Feels like you can be a "smart" bettor right up until they decide you’re not fun anymore lol.
And the hit rate chat does my head in a bit too. Blokes selling picks like 75% winners at near evens... yeah ok. If someone is actually doing 60-ish% at decent odds over a big sample that’s already nuts. I do way better on AFL and NRL than random US stuff, then donate it back chasing multis or player props with weird rules around injuries/subs. Maybe that’s the real leak, not the read on the games. idk if anyone here is actually up over a few seasons without getting clipped or ending up back at square one...