question This week’s league + footy prices are moving early

Bit of market movement already this week across both codes, hey. A few of the early head-to-head prices got clipped pretty quickly after team lists dropped, and some of the lines shifted as well once injury news started doing the rounds.

In the league games, the shorter favourites seem to be getting backed fast if there’s even one decent out for the other side. In the AFL, I’m seeing a few line moves tied to late selection stuff and weather chatter, especially for the interstate games. Nothing wild yet, just enough to notice if you check the books more than once a day.

Also feels like some books are a bit slower to update the side markets than the main win/line markets. First try, margins, player stats, that sort of thing... sometimes there’s a little gap there before everything catches up.

Just posting this in case anyone else is tracking it this round. Are you blokes jumping on early when the openers go up, or waiting till closer to kickoff/bounce when the teams are locked in properly? Keen to hear what you’re seeing.

I usually split it by code now. League I'm happy taking the opener if I've already got a read, because once the late mail starts the shorties can disappear pretty quick. Footy I wait longer more often, too many weird shifts off one late out or a dodgy forecast and you can end up holding a bad number.

Maybe I'm in the minority but I don't love getting on super early anymore. Feels like people chase the first move just because it moved, then by the time teams are settled you're stuck with a price that never really had much edge. Do you lot actually see those early moves hold that often?

I wouldn't go that far. In league the first decent move is often the right one unless fresh team news lands later, so waiting can just mean paying extra. AFL is a different beast though, that market can wobble around a lot more from selection and weather, which is why the smaller player and margin markets stay softer for longer.

Rex RapidWheel wrote >

Also feels like some books are a bit slower to update the side markets than the main win/line markets.

Yep, that's the bit I watch most. Main line gets cleaned up fast, then the extras just sit there for a while like nobody's checked them yet. Keen to know if anyone here is comparing books for that stuff every week or just pouncing when something looks stale.