question What are you lot actually checking before backing the footy?

Been trying to tighten up how I punt on AFL a bit, instead of just chucking something on because a price looks decent. Curious what everyone here puts the most weight on before a match.

At the moment I usually look at ins and outs, where it's being played, short turnarounds, weather if it's shaping up as one of those ugly wet arvo games, and whether a side has been getting smashed in clearances or inside 50s the last couple of weeks. Late changes feel massive too, especially when the line starts moving fast.

Do most of you stick to head-to-head and line bets, or are totals and player markets where you reckon the better value is? Also keen to know if there are any stats or angles you rate more than the usual form/ladder chat. Would be good to hear how other punters narrow games down before the round starts.

yeah pretty much same here. I reckon the matchup stuff matters more than the ladder half the time, like if one side wants to chip it around and the other is happy turning it into a scrap, that can wreck the obvious pick. In those ones I usually look at the total instead of trying to pick the winner.

I get why people watch the late move, but I think punters talk themselves into it a bit too much. If there is a clear reason, sure, but plenty of steam is just noise and by then the price is usually gone anyway. I am also pretty cautious with player markets because one role tweak can make the whole read useless before quarter time.

I'm a bit opposite on the player stuff tbh, that's where I've had more luck lately than sides or lines. Not all of them, just the really plain ones where a mid should be around it all night or a defender is gonna see heaps of ball. Do you guys track role changes from the week before much, or mostly just team lists?