I keep seeing people say the real edge in sports betting is getting a better price than the true chance, not just tipping winners. Makes sense in theory, but I’m curious how people here actually judge that without kidding themselves.
Are you blokes making your own prices first and then comparing with the bookies, or are you looking at market movement and trying to grab numbers before they shorten? I’ve been reading a bit about closing line stuff too, and that seems handy, but then again plenty of bets can beat the close and still go rotten for weeks.
Say you reckon a team should be about $1.80 and a book has them at $2.05 — that part is easy enough on paper. The bit I’m trying to work out is how confident you need to be in your own rating before it’s not just a guess with extra steps.
Also keen to know what people track when they’re using this sort of approach. ROI, strike rate, CLV, sample size, all of it? Do you chuck out multis completely and stick to singles, or do some of you still mix it up a bit?
If anyone’s got a simple way they assess whether a number is genuinely worth taking, chuck it in. Doesn’t need to be fancy model chat either — even just how you sanity-check your own prices would be good to hear.