question Tried backing only the prices that looked a bit off

Started by Kai CosmicWheel in Betting Systems · 0 views · 1 replies · ▲ 0



Been giving this approach a crack lately where I only bet if I reckon the odds are a touch bigger than they should be. Not chasing tips, not loading up on random multis, just waiting for spots where the bookie price looks a bit generous. Tiny sample still, so I'm not carrying on like I've cracked it, but it feels way less spewy than how I used to punt.

What I do like is it forces a bit of patience. I skip heaps more bets now, which is probably good for me anyway lol. Bit tricky though because sometimes I talk myself into seeing an edge that probably isn't there... then an hour later I'm thinking nah mate, that was just me wanting action before the arvo games started.

Curious what you lot reckon if you've played around with this style. How are you deciding a number is actually worth taking? Comparing across books, making your own rough prices, watching line moves, something else? Keen to hear if it held up for you long term or if it just felt good for a week and then reality kicked in.



I keep a little spreadsheet and only reckon I've found something if the close ends up shorter than what I took more often than not. Saves a lot of fooling yourself. A winner that blows out later is nice for the wallet, but it doesn't tell you much about whether your read was any good.

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