Been mucking around with this way of betting lately where I only have a crack if the price looks better than what I reckon it should be. Not talking crazy multis or any hero stuff, just singles where the number feels a touch generous.
Early thoughts... it actually makes punting feel a lot less random. I’m being pickier, betting less, and not just firing because there’s footy on and I’m bored on a Friday arvo. Kinda like that side of it. Feels more switched on.
The hard bit for me is working out whether I’m actually reading the market well or just talking myself into prices I already wanted to take lol. Easy to say “that should be shorter” after the fact. Before the game starts, bit different.
I’ve also found it’s not very exciting if I’m honest. Lots of scrolling, comparing odds, passing on games, waiting for a decent edge... which probably means it’s more sensible than fun. Still, if it saves me from punting on rubbish, good on ya.
Curious what the sharper punters on here reckon. Do you use this sort of approach seriously, or is it one of those things that sounds great in theory but gets messy once real money’s involved? And how do you judge your own price without disappearing down a stats rabbit hole for hours?