question Price matters more than picking winners, fight me

Started by Zoe BlazingPokie in Betting Systems · 0 views · 1 replies · ▲ 0



Bit of a rant, but I reckon heaps of punters get this backwards. They obsess over finding winners, hot tips, magic systems, whatever... and barely care if they took a rubbish price. If you keep backing stuff shorter than it should be, you're cooked long term even if you jag a few nice collects.

For me the whole game is getting overs. Doesn't even need to be sexy. If I think something should be about $3.20 and a bookie has chucked up $4, I'm way more interested in that than some "lock" at $1.70 that should probably be $1.45. Most people seem to hate that though because losing a few good-price bets in a row does their head in.

Same with all those betting systems people post - martingale this, level stakes that, multi builders every arvo because it "feels safe"... nah mate. If the price is off, that's where the edge is. If the price is bad, no staking plan in the world is saving you. Pretty simple, just bloody hard to stick to when the variance starts slapping you.

Curious how you lot play it. Are you actively comparing books and taking the best number every time, or mostly just backing what you like and not stressing the difference? And for the sharper punters, do you track closing line stuff or nah? Keen to hear if anyone here's actually made this approach work over a decent stretch.



I get the theory, just not sold that most punters can price stuff well enough before kickoff. Easy to think you found a great number, then it drifts and you realise your read was the thing that was off.

Related threads