question Stop calling every decent price a genuine edge

Maybe it’s just my feed lately but every second betting page is carrying on about finding the “wrong” price like they’ve cracked the code. Feels like this stuff has gone from niche punter chat to a full blown trend in about five minutes.

My take — most people talking about it are kidding themselves. If you’re not making your own numbers, or at least comparing across a heap of books properly, what are you actually basing it on? A boosted line and a gut feel isn’t some genius system. That’s just having a punt with nicer packaging.

The bit that gets lost is the boring stuff. Limits, timing, getting on before the market moves, and tracking every bet without fudging it after a good weekend. That’s the real game. Bookies aren’t handing out long-term edge because someone on TikTok said a team should be $1.80 instead of $1.95 lol.

I do reckon there are spots where the market is slow, especially smaller comps and player props, but the way it’s being sold lately is doing my head in. Makes newer punters think they only need one “price is off” moment and they’re away. Bit cooked, honestly.

Anyone here actually running this properly and beating the closing price over a decent sample, or is it mostly smoke? Keen to hear how people are measuring it, not just the highlight reel wins.

Jake BlazingSlot wrote >

Anyone here actually running this properly and beating the closing price over a decent sample, or is it mostly smoke?

One tip that helped me was splitting the log by market type instead of chucking everything into one pile. Main lines looked decent for me, the novelty stuff was a mess. Keen to know if anyone else tracks it that way or if I'm overcomplicating it.

I’m still skeptical about using the close as the only test. In smaller markets the last move can be pretty noisy, so beating it there doesn’t always mean much. A lot of people are really just following whichever screen moved first and calling that skill.

I had a crack at it for a while and the annoying bit wasn’t finding spots, it was getting anything on before the limits turned stingy. Once that happened, the good stuff dried up fast. That’s why I laugh when blokes act like it’s some easy side hustle.

Jake BlazingSlot wrote >

If you’re not making your own numbers, or at least comparing across a heap of books properly, what are you actually basing it on?

nah I don't fully agree with this part. You don't need a full model to spot a rogue price if you know which books tend to lead and which ones copy late. That's still a real process, not just vibes.

Little tip from someone still figuring it out: strip the margin out before you decide a price is any good. I was comparing raw odds for ages and it made heaps of bets look better than they were. Anyone got a quick way of doing that without turning it into homework?

I started paper tracking before putting proper money on and it was a bit humbling tbh. My worst stuff was nearly always me chasing after a move because I felt like I was missing out. Since then I leave more alone. Curious if other people found timing mattered more than the actual pick.