question Backing favourites is lazy punting... or just the smart play?

Started by Rex NeonCard in Horse Racing Tips · 0 views · 1 replies · ▲ 0



I swear half the punters I know just look at the shortest price, chuck it in a multi and call it a day. Drives me mad. If you're having a crack on the races, what do you actually rate most before backing one - barrier, jockey change, track condition, map, last-start luck, stable form...?

For me, wet tracks and tempo get ignored heaps by casuals. A decent runner can look ordinary if the race shape's wrong, and some of these flashy metro horses turn into pumpkins the second the track gets chopped up. Same with the big-name jockeys getting smashed in the market just because everyone knows them. Bookies must be laughing.

Keen to hear how you lot do it on a Saturday arvo. Keep it simple and trust the market, or go full form nerd and dig for overs? Any angles you still reckon are worth following in Aus, or is every edge basically gone now?



Honestly I reckon most of the so-called edges get flogged to death once everyone starts yapping about them. The bit I don't buy is all the hard-luck stuff after a run, punters fall in love with the unlucky one and next start it's already under the odds. I keep it pretty basic now: map, whether it's actually handled the surface before, and if the class rise looks bloody awkward. The rest is noise half the time.

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