Been getting a bit more into the races lately and I feel like I’m probably overthinking half of it lol. I’ll look at barrier, last starts, track condition, jockey change, distance, then the market moves... and by the time I’ve talked myself into one, it runs fifth. Keen to know what you lot actually lock in on first.
Do you mostly trust the form guide, or are you bigger on replays and speed maps? I keep hearing punters say stuff about tempo and getting a soft run, and yeah I sort of get it, but not enough to be confident chucking a proper bet on. Same with wet tracks too — some seem to love it, others just go missing, and I can’t always tell what’s legit and what’s just noise.
If you had to keep it simple for someone trying to get better at picking them, what would be your first 2 or 3 things to check every time? Happy to do the homework, just trying to stop doing my dough on guesses every Saturday arvo.