Been trying to be less of a drongo with the races lately and actually have a process instead of just backing the one with the funny name or the flashy last start replay. Had a decent run the last few Saturdays just keeping it simple.
Main thing that helped me was looking at the track and map first, not last. Sounds obvious but I used to do it backwards. If a runner looks good on paper but gets posted wide and the rail is playing tricky, I leave it alone now. Same with wet tracks... heaps of horses look great till they hit the bog and go missing at the 300.
I also reckon late market moves are useful, just not as a religion. If something gets smashed in from like 6s into 4s, yeah I pay attention, but I am not blindly diving in anymore. Couple of times I did that and the thing ran like it had already done the job in the mounting yard. Bit more faith now in form, tempo and whether the horse is actually in the right grade.
Best results for me have been with pretty boring stuff really — horses dropping back to a suitable class, decent jockey booking, and ones that map to get a soft run instead of needing everything to go right. The roughies I do back now are usually the ones that are overlooked because of one bad run, not just random dart throws for the sake of a price.
Curious what everyone else is using lately. You blokes into ratings, speed maps, sectionals, stable mail... or just keeping it old school and doing the form yourself over a coffee Saturday arvo?