Been punting the nags long enough to remember when I’d try to factor in absolutely everything and just end up talking myself into rubbish bets. These days I’m way quicker to toss a runner if a couple of things look off, but I’m curious what other regulars are cutting first before they go any deeper.
For me, weak tempo setup gets a big red line straight away. If I’ve got one mapped three pairs back or worse and it needs everything to go spot on, I’m usually out unless the price is silly. Same with horses coming off soft wins in thin grade that are suddenly meeting proper metro pressure... book can flatter them a fair bit.
I’m also a bit less obsessed with last start finishing position than I used to be. A horse can run 6th and still be the run of the race if it was posted deep or chasing a hot speed on a day the track was off. Meanwhile some of these pretty little 2nd placings look lovely in the guide and are absolute traps once you watch the replay.
Track pattern is probably the one that still does my head in. Some arvos I reckon I’ve got it nailed, then one leader kicks on in the worst ground and suddenly I’m reworking the whole meeting. Curious how much weight you lot give early in the day to bias versus just sticking with your original numbers.
And what do you do with market moves now? I used to respect late support heaps more than I do now. Still matters, sure, especially in the better stables, but there’s so much noise in it these days that I’m not keen to chase every drifter or every one that firms 30 cents. Feels like a good way to donate if you’re not careful.
Anyway chuck in the stuff you’re ruthless with now. Map? jockey switch? wet track stats? trials? breeding for the trip? I’m always up for nicking a better filter from someone who’s been around the block a bit.