Been mucking around with a few different ways of sizing my bets lately instead of just chucking random units on whatever game looks good. Tried flat stakes for a bit, then percentage of bankroll, then one of those progression setups where you bump it after a loss... yeah nah, that one got old pretty fast.
What I can't work out is whether any of these approaches actually help long term, or if the real trick is just being picky with your plays and keeping records like a normal person. Feels like heaps of the fancy setups look sweet for a couple of rounds, then one rough AFL or NRL weekend and the whole thing is cactus.
Curious what everyone here is actually using, if anything. Flat betting only? Kelly stuff? Just 1 or 2 units and no dramas? Keen to hear what's been workable for you and what turned into a bloody headache.
▲ 0#2
Ava RapidCoin wrote >
What I can't work out is whether any of these approaches actually help long term, or if the real trick is just being picky with your plays and keeping records like a normal person.
I don't reckon it's just the record-keeping bit tbh. If your staking is too jumpy, a bad footy round can still torch you even when the reads were fine. Those chase-it-after-a-loss setups are rubbish though, they feel clever right up until they don't.
▲ 0#3
Flat units has been the least messy for me. Tried the Kelly-ish stuff for a while and the maths wasn't even the issue, it was acting like I knew my edge to that level. The log was more useful because it showed pretty fast which markets I actually read well and which ones I only thought I did.
▲ 0#4
One thing that helped me was setting a cap for a whole round, not just per bet. Easy to think each wager is small until you've got a bunch of them all hanging off the same weekend. Do you split that in your notes at all, like by round or by market?
