question Backing it when the odds look a bit wrong - how do you judge it?

Started by Sam MegaReel in Betting Systems · 0 views · 1 replies · ▲ 0



Been mucking around with this lately and I kinda like the idea of only having a bet when the price looks bigger than it should be, instead of just punting because I like a team or a player. Sounds simple when you say it fast... then you sit there staring at a market thinking am I actually seeing something, or just talking myself into it?

For the blokes here who bet that way a fair bit, how are you working it out? Are you doing your own ratings, comparing across a few books, waiting for late moves, or just getting a feel for certain comps you know really well? I reckon that's the bit I'm stuck on - knowing the difference between a genuine edge and just being keen for a bet on a Saturday arvo.

Also curious how strict you are with it. Do you only fire when the gap is obvious, or still have a nibble on smaller ones if the price feels decent? Keen to hear how you lot approach it, especially if you've been doing it for a while and figured out what actually works and what ends up being bloody noise.



Sam MegaReel wrote >

Sounds simple when you say it fast... then you sit there staring at a market thinking am I actually seeing something, or just talking myself into it?

Yep, that's the trap. Best thing I did was make my own number before I even open the bookies. If I look at the market first I start anchoring to it and suddenly every price looks playable.

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