question Mispriced odds... do you blokes actually make this work long term?

Been down a bit of a rabbit hole with this lately. Trying to get away from just backing stuff because it feels right and more into taking a price only when it looks better than what it should be.

Like if I rate something shorter and the bookie has it out a fair bit, that’s the bet... simple enough in theory. In real life though, after a rough weekend you start wondering if your numbers are cooked and you’re just dressing up a guess with a spreadsheet lol.

Any of you actually doing this properly and sticking with it? Keen to know whether you make your own prices, just compare across books, follow sharp market moves, or what. Also what sports are you finding easiest for it? AFL/NRL? Horses? Random stuff on a Tuesday arvo?

Big thing for me is sample size too. A few wins and you feel like a genius, a few losing rounds and it’s straight back to second guessing. How long did it take before you trusted your edge, if you had one at all?

Chuck in your process if you’ve got one, even if it’s rough as. Curious how other punters are approaching it and whether it’s still worth the effort these days.

yeah I reckon the hardest part is not letting the result decide whether the bet was good. I got a lot calmer once I started judging it by whether I was getting the better number more often than not. For me the smaller side markets were a bit softer too, main lines get cleaned up pretty quick.

I kind of disagree with the whole make-your-own-prices thing for most punters. Feels like a neat way to polish gut feel and call it a process. I'd rather know one comp inside out and wait than try to rate everything on the board. Curious if anyone's numbers still look good once the market really firms up.

Did it for a season and the only thing that actually moved the needle was learning to skip games. I was forcing action just because I'd already done the work and wanted a bet out of it. Started writing a quick note for every play, and if the reason looked thin when I read it back later, I stopped touching that kind of spot.

Kai SilverSlot wrote >

Keen to know whether you make your own prices, just compare across books, follow sharp market moves, or what.

That bit is where I get stuck, mate. Everyone says watch the sharp moves but half the time by the time you see it, the juicy number is long gone and you're just tailing late. How are people telling the difference between a respected move and a line just wobbling around on a busy weekend?