Been mucking around with this for a while now, basically trying to work out my own fair odds before I even look at what the bookies are offering. If their number is bigger than what I reckon it should be, that’s the only time I’m really interested. Sounds dead simple when you say it like that... actually doing it properly is another story.
My take so far: it makes way more sense than random hunch punting, but bloody hell it can test your patience. You can make what feels like a smart bet, get a nice price, and still watch it lose five mins later. Then the next week you’re staring at a few losses in a row wondering if your prices are rubbish or if it’s just variance doing its thing. Bit of a head noise if you’re not used to it.
The part I do like is it stops me chasing nonsense. If I can’t come up with a decent number myself, I usually leave it alone now. That alone has probably saved me heaps. Also started paying more attention to where the line closes, because getting a better number than where it ends up feels like you were at least on the right track, even if the result stings.
Still reckon this style suits patient punters more than action bettors. If you just want a flutter on the arvo games, you’ll probably get bored fast. If you don’t mind spreadsheets, comparing markets, and passing on most stuff, it’s actually pretty solid.
Curious how the rest of you go with it though — do you build your own prices, use models, just eyeball it from form and stats, or not bother unless the edge looks massive? Keen to hear what’s worked and what’s been a waste of time.