I'll say it straight — I reckon too many punters get obsessed with hit rate and not enough with price. If a line looks wrong and you're getting overs, that's the whole play for me. Doesn't matter if it loses tonight. If you keep grabbing numbers that should be shorter, that's where the edge is... not in chasing some magic system that wins 8 out of 10 and still somehow leaves you skint.
What does my head in is when blokes brag about tipping heaps of winners but they're taking garbage odds the whole time. Backing a $1.35 shot just so you can feel clever after it gets up isn't exactly big-brain stuff. I'd rather cop a few losses on decent prices than pretend a fat win rate means anything by itself.
Curious how everyone here actually spots it though. Are you comparing a few books, building your own prices, following team news quicker than the market, or just going off feel after watching enough footy/racing/whatever? Keen to hear how other people approach it, because I swear the idea sounds simple until you're staring at a price in the arvo thinking "this looks juicy" and then talking yourself out of it five minutes later.
Also... do you lot bet the same when you reckon the edge is there, or scale up depending on how far off the price looks? That part seems to split people heaps.